THE ELLIOTT WAVE RESEARCH PROJECT

Research Results and Discoveries


Elliottician’s research is powered by the Elliott Research Project Mk II (ERP2) which facilitates the enormous computing power necessary by way of distributed computing through the ERP2 ScreenSaver.
 
Identifying Common Elliott Wave Patterns in Specific Markets
 
The Elliott Wave Principle defines eleven patterns found in financial markets. The exact shape of each pattern can vary significantly, as long as all of the specific Elliott Wave pattern rules apply.
 
Elliottician’s research is strictly confined to patterns as they are defined by the Elliott Wave Principle.
 
The most common shape of each Elliott Wave pattern varies significantly in different financial markets. Shapes also vary considerably in different time frames and orientation. The ERP2 project has accurately identified the most common shapes of each Elliott Wave pattern in the complete spectrum of markets – and has resulted in a range of databases containing a large number of fully documented pattern details.
 
Forecasting accuracy is dependent on being able to correctly identify the beginning of an Elliott Wave pattern and predict where it is most likely to finish. The more detailed and comprehensive the PowerPack databases, the more accurately the RET software is able to predict future market movement.
 
ERP2 has uncovered why Elliott Wave is so often regarded as difficult to apply in real markets. So called common Elliott Wave patterns are not that common. ERP2 has fully documented the most common Elliot Wave patterns for each market, and their most common shape for each time frame and orientation.
 
Because of ERP2, the Refined Elliott Wave Principle is now an exact science, based on solid mathematical and statistical evidence that verify the probabilities involved.
 
ERP2 is continually updating and documenting more Elliott Wave patterns in a wide range of markets, and as such, enabling the RET software to adapt to an ever changing marketplace. The results are encoded into regular releases of the Market Specific PowerPacks.
 
Improving the Accuracy of Refined Elliott Wave Forecasts
 
During the analysis process, the RET software identifies valid Elliott Wave patterns in a chart, and rates them according to a predefined set of rules. The pattern with the highest rating is known as the Preferred Count.
 
The process of rating Elliott Wave patterns is a new science – and is dependent on determining which patterns more accurately match the most common patterns for the particular market being analyzed.
 
There are many determining factors to consider when matching patterns, such as the relative importance of price, time, volume and other parameters. For example, if one Elliott Wave pattern matches the “ideal” very well by price but not by time, should it be given a higher rating than another pattern that matches well by time, but not by price? Which pattern has the higher probability of accurately forecasting future market action?
 
The most pragmatic approach is to test large numbers of RET forecasts while varying the relative weighting between these and other parameters - so as to find the set of parameter values that most often results in a Preferred Count that gives a correct and accurate market forecast.
 
ERP2 is continually testing and improving RET’s forecasting accuracy. The latest results are coded into the regular updates of both the RET software and the Market Specific PowerPacks.

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The Purpose of Elliottician is to continue refining the Elliott Wave Principle and to teach its successful application in forecasting the markets.

Risk Disclaimer: All trading involves risk. Leveraged trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. Be aware and accept this risk before trading. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. All forecasting is based on statistics derived from past performance and past performance of any trading methodology is no guarantee of future results. No "safe" trading system has ever been devised and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. No representation is being made that any account will achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed. There is no guarantee that, even with the best advice available, you will become a successful trader because not everyone has what it takes to be a successful trader. The trading strategies discussed may be unsuitable for you depending upon your specific investment objectives and financial position. You must make your own investment decisions in light of your own investment objectives, risk profile, and circumstances. Use independent advisors as you believe necessary. Therefore, the information provided herein is not intended to be specific advice as to whether you should engage in a particular trading strategy or buy, sell, or hold any financial product. Margin requirements, tax considerations, commissions, and other transaction costs may significantly affect the economic consequences of the trading strategies or transactions discussed and you should review such requirements with your own legal, tax and financial advisors. Before engaging in such trading activities, you should understand the nature and extent of your rights and obligations and be aware of the risks involved. All testimonials are unsolicited and are potentially non-representative of all clients. Your trading results may vary from those case studies detailed on the Elliottician website. Elliottician is not a broker or licensed investment advisor and therefore is not licensed to tailor general investment advice for individual traders. Your actions and the results of your actions in regard to anything you receive from Elliottician are entirely your own responsibility. Elliottician cannot and will not assume liability for any losses that may be incurred by the use of any information received from Elliottician. Any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

Hypothetical Disclaimer: All results are considered to be Hypothetical unless otherwise specified: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. Furthermore, only risk capital should be used for leveraged trading due to the high risk of loss involved. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses (and incur account drawdowns) or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading loses are important issues which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, method or system, which cannot be completely taken into consideration with hypothetical performance results and will affect trading results and your P/L.